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Recently, Bernanke is reported to have said something like: Wall Street may have employed a lot of first class mathematical
minds but they sure as hell didnt actually know about the practical risks of banking at very detailed levels. In
the mid 1990s, I had a similar ouch. It first arose in a conversation with the head of a leading European Business School.
Chris he said: I have just gone back to about 100 industrial accidents. In re-reviewing them I have found that over 90% per
cent were reported as due to some thing breaking such as a rubber washer on a NASA spacessip -and whilst inded that was the
final straw, my analysis shows that the root cause in over 90% was a human system where disaster was waiting to happen.
Over time however perfectly a human prevention system was originally designed it degrades unless people are consciously
and relentlessly challenging what's changing not just inside an engioneer's blueprints but in surrounding
peopel systems and beyond -eg in its envoronments and interfaces with other systems -including other companies in a network.
The catch 22 is that true risk prevention involves a lot of work on flows(often at the boudaries of different
units' responsibilities) which to many cost accountants does not appear to have any place for bookable
value until after a tragedy! Moreover when a tragedy does happen, insurance companies put a gag order on finding out what
humanly happened as that can leave them open to far higher liabilities in most cases than if a physical thing broke. Over
the tears l have spotted quite a few pieces in the jigsaw puzzle of why conventional risk analyses are as risky as the greatest
human details they scope as outside their frame of reference. i would love to talk to anyone who is likewise pre-occupied
with what is necessarily research that is at the fringe of the big risk professions. chris.macrae@yahoo,co.uk washingtin dc tel 301 881 1655 Below is a scarpbook of a few of the links I have seen on my journey. It is not
yet in a particularly cherent order as iot is pasted from a variety of webs and logs that I now need to converge time permitting 1
to insert - some paragraphs on Krugmans analysis of the 5 types of Ponzi Schemes that Gliobal Accounting has or still turns
a blind eye to 2 Early log of multibillion dollar corporate collapses - now with compound inflation input top our
recomended approach for trillion dollar audit3 Examples of some talks I have given - presentation materials available on request *Risks
of Lost Transparency of Global Branding , Georgetown Colloqium, 2000; Harvard Business School 1999
*Annual meeting of the risk professionals and business continuity association - Survive, London 2004. Internal auditors
West of England Branch meeting 2003 -maps of value analysis which first forecast in 1999 that Andersen would lose all
its future goodwill unless its top management could get over promising to be 100% correct in worlds of advicce where 99% is
already more than is practically possible. Note the problem of compounding 99% correctness when everyone is relying on 100%
certainty only takes a few years to become an unacceptable risk of crashing everything
*Annual
meeting of Global Reconciliation Newtork, Indira Gandhi National Centre for Cultures, Delhi 2004 -paper on the coming
war between goodwill and badwill networks
*European Union Knowledge Critical Incidents
Special Interest Group, Brussels 2004 Please tell us where you see Board Room Leaders of Worldwide
Organisations standing up for transparency and the truth of risk  quote from changemakers transparency competition
"Compliance to a value system creates the environment for people
to have high aspirations, self esteem, belief in fundamental values, confidence in the future and the enthusiasm necessary
to take up apparently difficult tasks. Leaders have to walk the talk and demonstrate their commitment to a value system."
- N.R. Narayana Murthy, Co-founder, Chairman and Chief Mentor, Infosys Technologies Limited, from "The Essence of Leadership," January 4, 2005, Refiff.com
To come, links to: Survive's
best ever talk by a corporate leader - Sir John Banham Sustainability's whole truth debating Chairman
: Ray Anderson The early detect, early response maxim of Larry Brilliant, Chair of google Youtube talks
to embed from ted larry brilliant talk on preventing plague and other waves in an ever more connected planet first
10 minutes of clinton speech in acceptance of the ted prize
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